Short-Term
Investments

Systematic rules, discretionary discipline

The strategy operates on a dual-layer structure. The first layer is the systematic signal engine, a rule-based framework that identifies market conditions, trend strength, and entry opportunities without emotional input. The second layer is discretionary oversight, applied not to override the system but to govern position sizing and manage exposure during periods of structural uncertainty.

Neither layer dominates. The system provides the signal. The discretionary layer provides the context in which that signal is acted upon, or withheld.

Three signal types, applied in conjunction

The strategy draws on three distinct signal types, each capturing a different aspect of market behaviour. No single signal is acted upon in isolation. Positions are initiated when multiple signals align, a confluence approach that materially reduces false entries.

• Momentum Signals Assets in motion tend to remain in motion. Momentum signals identify instruments where price trend is well-established, participation is broad, and the structural direction is clear. Positions are held until the signal weakens and a defined exit threshold is reached.
• Mean-Reversion Signals Overextension creates opportunity. When an asset has moved excessively in one direction, measured against its own historical behaviour, the probability of a reversal increases. Mean-reversion signals identify these conditions and provide a framework for structured entries against the prevailing trend.
• Confluence Signals The highest-confidence opportunities occur when momentum and mean-reversion signals align: when an asset is both trending and has temporarily pulled back to a technical inflection point. Confluence entries offer the most favourable risk-reward ratio in the framework and are weighted most heavily in position sizing.

Drawdown management as the primary discipline

The edge in short-term investing comes not from better entries, but from exiting losing positions faster and letting winners run longer than emotion would normally allow. The risk framework enforces this asymmetry mechanically.

• Hard Stop-Loss Rules Every position has a defined maximum loss threshold set at entry. If reached, the position is closed without discretionary override. The rule exists precisely because discretion under loss is unreliable.
• Trailing Stops on Profitable Positions Winning positions are protected using trailing stops that lock in a portion of the gain as the position moves in our favour. This allows profits to compound while preventing a winning trade from reversing into a loss.
• Maximum Exposure Limits Total portfolio exposure (across all open positions) is capped as a function of prevailing market volatility. In high-volatility environments, individual position sizes are reduced automatically to maintain a consistent risk profile.
• Drawdown Threshold Protocol If the portfolio reaches a defined drawdown threshold within a given period, all positions are reviewed and exposure is reduced to a base level. This prevents compounding losses during extended adverse conditions and preserves capital for recovery.